Yesterday I woke up to a text from a friend– Qaddafi found and captured. My first instinct was the question the validity of this news, considering that his sons had been falsely declared captured various times. But this time the news was real– by the time I got to my desk at work various videos were available showing the deposed Libyan authoritarian captured, and eventually dead. I thought about this throughout the day yesterday, and kept wondering what this means for the rest of the Arab countries currently experiencing some revolutionary upheavals.
If I were to predict this, which I will here in writing, this is how I see the future playing out.
While we can judge the images that have been broadcast on news networks around the world in various different ways– and I must confess that I wasn’t a fan of the videos– the images are available for the likes of Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen and Bashar al-Assad of Syria to view.
Saleh has already been bombed once during the revolution in his country. That means two things for the purposes of his likelihood to step down as president of Yemen. Firstly, perhaps the illusion that he is invincible has been shattered. We all believe that authoritarian rulers with unchecked power are shielded from reality and, perhaps are oblivious to what is happening outside of their own circles, where advisors and lackies protect them from knowing anything about the world outside of their palaces. This level of being blinded by power is most familiar to us when we think of dictators like Saddam Hussein and Hosni Mubarak.
Secondly it has already been demonstrated very clearly to Saleh that his security is breachable by those of his people who oppose his rule and that they are willing to depose of him through armed means. Yemen’s uprising has been mostly peaceful, although violent crackdowns have been prompted by the government against the people and those moments the people respond .
With the new images of Gaddafi’s capture and execution circulating I would be surprised in Saleh doesn’t step down in the fashion of Mubarak and Ben Ali within the coming few weeks. At the moment there is a Gulf Cooperation Council peace deal on the table for Saleh to sign, which would end his 33-year rule and grant him, his family, and his inner circles amnesty. The opposition has become unhappy with the deal because Saleh has imposed so many meaningless demands on the deal in an effort to stall signing it or stepping down. And today the UN passed a resolution requesting he sign the GCC deal and step down in an effort to pressure him. All of these events are sealing Saleh’s fate, and he must have realized by now that his fate can be much different from Gaddafi’s, or it can be the same. But he will lose his power in the end.
Once Saleh steps down I predict that Syria’s Bashar al-Assad will be next to go. Syria and Bahrain’s leadership will be the last two of those who brutally repressed the opposition movements to remain standing. As an aside, I am not sure what may happen in Bahrain, as the majority of the opposition supports the Wefaq party, which calls for a constitutional monarchy rather than the deposition of the monarch altogether. However in the long run, if negotiations fail between the people and the government, the people may shift position and demand the removal of the king altogether. We have to wait and watch to see what may happen on the Bahrain front.
In Syria, however, the people have sustained their pressure against the government, even while the government has suppressed them brutally. Disturbing news comes out of Syria daily as well as told anecdotally to me through friends who were recently in the country. A UN resolution to punish the Syrian government for its crackdown against the people was vetoed by Russia and China at the UN Secruity Council. And in further developments, Britain expressed that along with its allies in the operation in Libya, they can repeat a similar operation in Syria. There are many warning signs against Bashar al-Assad, whose regime thus far appears rigid in their insistence to maintain power over Syria. But after Gaddafi’s capture and execution, and after Saleh is gone, Assad will find himself in the most compromising position yet.


























